Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Superluminal neutrinos in long baseline experiments and SN1987a

Precise tests of Lorentz invariance in neutrinos can be performed using long baseline experiments such as MINOS and OPERA or neutrinos from astrophysical sources. The MINOS collaboration reported a measurement of the muonic neutrino velocities that hints to super-luminal propagation, very recently confirmed at 6 sigma by OPERA. We consider a general parametrisation which goes beyond the usual linear or quadratic violation considered in quantum-gravitational models. We also propose a toy model showing why Lorentz violation can be specific to the neutrino sector and give rise to a generic energy behaviour E^alpha, where alpha is not necessarily an integer number. Supernova bounds and the preferred MINOS and OPERA regions show a tension, due to the absence of shape distortion in the neutrino bunch in the far detector of MINOS. The energy independence of the effect has also been pointed out by the OPERA results.Comment: 22 pages, 7 figures; comment on Cherenkov emission added, version matching JHEP published pape

Cosmological Birefringence: an Astrophysical test of Fundamental Physics

We review the methods used to test for the existence of cosmological birefringence, i.e. a rotation of the plane of linear polarization for electromagnetic radiation traveling over cosmological distances, which might arise in a number of important contexts involving the violation of fundamental physical principles. The main methods use: (1) the radio polarization of radio galaxies and quasars, (2) the ultraviolet polarization of radio galaxies, and (3) the cosmic microwave background polarization. We discuss the main results obtained so far, the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and future prospects.Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the JENAM 2010 Symposium "From Varying Couplings to Fundamental Physics", held in Lisbon, 6-10 Sept. 201

Non-Standard Neutrino Propagation and Pion Decay

Motivated by the findings of the OPERA experiment, we discuss the hypothesis that neutrino propagation does not obey Einstein special relativity. Under a minimal set of modifications of the standard model Lagrangian, we consider the implications of non standard neutrino propagation on the description of neutrino interactions and, specifically, on the pion decay processes. We show that all the different dispersion relations which have been proposed so far to explain OPERA results, imply huge departures from the standard expectations. The decay channel $\pi^+ \to e^+ \nu_{\rm e}$ becomes significantly larger than in the standard scenario, and may even dominate over $\pi^+ \to \mu^+ \nu_{\rm \mu}$. Moreover, the spectral distribution of neutrinos produced in the decay processes and the probability that a pion decays in flight in neutrinos show large deviations from the standard results.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, version accepted in JHE

State of the Field: Extreme Precision Radial Velocities

The Second Workshop on Extreme Precision Radial Velocities defined circa 2015 the state of the art Doppler precision and identified the critical path challenges for reaching 10 cm/s measurement precision. The presentations and discussion of key issues for instrumentation and data analysis and the workshop recommendations for achieving this precision are summarized here. Beginning with the HARPS spectrograph, technological advances for precision radial velocity measurements have focused on building extremely stable instruments. To reach still higher precision, future spectrometers will need to produce even higher fidelity spectra. This should be possible with improved environmental control, greater stability in the illumination of the spectrometer optics, better detectors, more precise wavelength calibration, and broader bandwidth spectra. Key data analysis challenges for the precision radial velocity community include distinguishing center of mass Keplerian motion from photospheric velocities, and the proper treatment of telluric contamination. Success here is coupled to the instrument design, but also requires the implementation of robust statistical and modeling techniques. Center of mass velocities produce Doppler shifts that affect every line identically, while photospheric velocities produce line profile asymmetries with wavelength and temporal dependencies that are different from Keplerian signals. Exoplanets are an important subfield of astronomy and there has been an impressive rate of discovery over the past two decades. Higher precision radial velocity measurements are required to serve as a discovery technique for potentially habitable worlds and to characterize detections from transit missions. The future of exoplanet science has very different trajectories depending on the precision that can ultimately be achieved with Doppler measurements.Comment: 45 pages, 23 Figures, workshop summary proceeding

Measurement of jet-substructure observables in top quark, W boson and light jet production in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of jet substructure observables is presented using data collected in 2016 by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC with proton-proton collisions at s√ = 13 TeV. Large-radius jets groomed with the trimming and soft-drop algorithms are studied. Dedicated event selections are used to study jets produced by light quarks or gluons, and hadronically decaying top quarks and W bosons. The observables measured are sensitive to substructure, and therefore are typically used for tagging large-radius jets from boosted massive particles. These include the energy correlation functions and the N-subjettiness variables. The number of subjets and the Les Houches angularity are also considered. The distributions of the substructure variables, corrected for detector effects, are compared to the predictions of various Monte Carlo event generators. They are also compared between the large-radius jets originating from light quarks or gluons, and hadronically decaying top quarks and W bosons

Evolution review of Bayescalc, a MATHEMATICA package for doing bayesian calculations

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SN 1987A: Historical view about registration of the neutrino signal with Baksan, KAMIOKANDE II and IMB detectors

The detection of neutrinos from SN 1987A opened a new era in neutrino astrophysics in the last century. We present a historical view about registration of the neutrino signal from supernova SN 1987A in the Large Magellanic Cloud by the BAKSAN liquid scintillator detector and by the two water Cherenkov detectors — Kamiokande-II and IMB. All three detectors observed a total neutrino signal of 24 events at 7:35 UT 23 February, 1987. I will concentrate mostly about the BAKSAN supernova group analysis of the neutrino signal, which was already done in the years 1987 and 1988. The results of this analysis (determination of average properties of the neutrino signal: the total energy of neutrino emission, the effective neutrino temperature, the total luminosity of the neutrino signal, duration of the neutrino burst) are presented. The common analysis of all three detectors shows that these 'parameters' have good agreement with the general theoretical description of explosions of supernovae. The analysis shows that the inclusion of the BAKSAN data is very important for the understanding of the SN87A event. The latest results of 20 years of observation of our Galaxy by the BAKSAN scintillation telescope show that the upper limit of the mean frequency of gravitational collapses is <0.13 yr^-1 at a 90% confidence level